Predictability

I’ve only posted a couple of times since life was irrevocably changed nine-and-a-half months ago. I’ve been writing a little– but not consistently– and still listening to the Scriptnotes podcast.

While helping to vacuum the house today, I listened to the Groundhog Day episode, number 133.

Listening to two knowledgeable screenwriters talk about a classic movie is a great way to spend 65 minutes, but it’s a brief comment at the end made by Craig Mazin that I want to talk about in this post.

This is something we could talk about in another podcast, although I should bring it up now, I guess. And that’s this idea of predictability. We’re constantly, “Oh, it’s too predictable. Predictable.” Hey, what’s more predictable than a movie where a guy lives every day over and over and then finally falls in love and gets a new day? So, predictable. We want that. This is good predictability. We’re desperate for it by the time it comes. We just want it to be earned. And we don’t mind the fact that it happens the way it’s supposed to happen because it’s structured so gorgeously. (Craig Mazin) 

Too predictable.

It’s a common criticism, isn’t it?

Craig and John’s brief discussion– which will hopefully expand to a full podcast episode– made me think of some movies that are certainly predictable, but we love anyway.

The first example that sprang to mind is James Bond. In almost every Bond movie, we expect a glamorous girl or two. We know there’ll be some arch-villain with a fiendish plan. There’ll probably be gadgets of some sort. There’ll be car chases and fights.

But a Bond movie wouldn’t be a Bond movie without those things!

Predictability is not the enemy of a compelling movie. As John August states in the podcast, it’s the execution of the ideas, even if they’re predictable.

As long as the movie has a compelling end, a compelling destination, it can be predictable. As long as the journey to the destination is interesting and well executed.

After all, why do we enjoy watching our favourite movies over and over again? We know exactly how they are going to turn out.

We watch our favourite movies over and over because we love the ride. We love the journey our characters take.

What’s important is not so much the hero’s destination (although that certainly is important) and whether it is predictable, but that the journey is compelling and well executed.

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